SPCX · SpaceX Tracker

Single source of truth — auto-refreshed Sep 18, 2026 1:54 AM · catalysts & news pulled live each day
12-Month Projection (median)
$220
▲ 41.9% from today's $154.81
Range: $60 – $672 (P10–P90)
Sentiment
Mildly Bearish
-8/100
Confidence
19%
Model MAE
3.1%
4-day avg err
Band Hit Rate
100%

Price Timeline — 5 Days Actual · Today · 5 Days Projected

Sat Sep 12
$151
actual
Sun Sep 13
$151
actual
Mon Sep 14
$151
actual
Tue Sep 15
$143
actual
Thu Sep 17
$151
actual
Fri Sep 18
$155
$149–$160
today
Mon Sep 21
$155
$144–$166
proj D+1
Tue Sep 22
$156
$140–$171
proj D+2
Wed Sep 23
$156
$137–$175
proj D+3
Thu Sep 24
$156
$134–$179
proj D+4
Fri Sep 25
$157
$132–$182
proj D+5
Blue = realized closes · Green = today's model estimate · Purple dashed = forward projection with widening confidence cone.

Model Report Card — Projected vs Actual (last 5 days)

DateProjectedActualErrorIn Band?Called On
Sun Sep 13 — $151.21 — — —
Mon Sep 14 $151.63 $151.21 -0.3% HIT Sep 13
Tue Sep 15 $151.63 $143.49 -5.4% HIT Sep 14
Thu Sep 17 $144.28 $150.88 +4.6% HIT Sep 15
Fri Sep 18 $151.29 $154.81 +2.3% HIT Sep 17
Over 4 days: mean absolute error 3.1%, actual landed inside the projected band 100% of the time.

What Moved the Number Today

  • • ✗ Starship Flight 13 - V3 Starlink + heat shield failed (-8%)
  • • Net news sentiment: -0.08
  • • 5 catalysts pending, 1 resolved

Catalyst Watch (live)

Starship Flight 13 - V3 Starlink + heat shield
Jul 23, 2026 · 75% odds · SpaceX’s Shares Tank After Starship Fails to Launc
Failed
Starlink spinoff IPO AUTO
date TBD · 40% odds
Pending
Pentagon AI compute contract
Oct 15, 2026 · 60% odds
Pending
Q3 2026 Earnings
Oct 30, 2026 · 65% odds
Pending
Starship cadence / return-to-pad
Jan 15, 2027 · 70% odds
Pending
FY2026 Earnings + 2027 guidance
Jan 30, 2027 · 55% odds
Pending

News Summary — Read Further

SpaceX aims Starship for orbit on September 22
Flight test 14 angling for 10 hours in space and a splashdown in the Pacific
starship Slashdot.org Sep 17, 12:33 AM — sentiment
SpaceX soars 5% after Starship reusable rocket launch date revealed
Shares of SpaceX soared over 5% Wednesday on news Elon Musk’s company has a new launch date for Starship -- a huge, fully-reusable rocket that’s central to the firm’s business plan…
starship New York Post Sep 16, 3:38 PM ▲ sentiment
SpaceX stock pops ahead of Starship launch
stock rose about 5% on Tuesday, coming on the heels of no new news, though a couple of catalysts may be at work. On Monday, SpaceX said on X that it would fly the 14th test mission…
starship Biztoc.com Sep 16, 2:16 PM ▼ sentiment
Cathie Wood Says SpaceX Didn't Need an IPO—Until Data Centers in Space Came Along
Cathie Wood says SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) had no need for public markets as long as Starlink kept generating cash. Elon Musk’s push into orbital AI data centers...
starship Benzinga Sep 16, 12:27 PM — sentiment
SpaceX Regains $150 IPO Open Price as Defense Dept. Confirms Space-Based Weapons
Shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) are up 5.1% in mid-morning trading Wednesday, changing hands at $151 after opening near $143. The move pushes the stock back a...
ai compute 24/7 Wall St. Sep 16, 12:26 PM — sentiment
SpaceX rises 5% ahead of Starship's first orbital test
Shares of SpaceX rose more than 5% on Wednesday after the company said it is targeting September 22 for its next Starship test flight, which could mark the rocket's first attempt t…
starship Biztoc.com Sep 16, 11:00 AM — sentiment
SpaceX Rises 5% as Starship’s First Orbital Attempt Gets Launch Date; Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile Hold Steady
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock is climbing Wednesday morning on news of a firm launch date for Starship’s next test flight. Barron’s reported the company plans t...
starship 24/7 Wall St. Sep 16, 10:36 AM — sentiment
SpaceX shares rise 5% on Starship first orbital test
Shares of SpaceX rose more than 5% on Wednesday after the company said it is targeting September 22 for its next Starship test flight, which could mark the rocket's first attempt t…
starship Biztoc.com Sep 16, 10:30 AM — sentiment
Cathie Wood Projects $10 Trillion In SpaceX Starship Revenue By 2030
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood said SpaceX by the end of the decade could generate trillions in Starship revenue. Elon Musk agrees. The post Cathie Wood Projects $10 Trillion In SpaceX…
starship Biztoc.com Sep 16, 9:11 AM — sentiment
No Pressure: A Massive Starlink Upgrade Hinges on SpaceX's Next Starship Launch
Next week's Starship Flight 14 will deploy the first operational Starlink V3 satellites, which promise a 10x leap in bandwidth capacity. A failure, however, could be a brutally exp…
starship PCMag.com Sep 16, 9:00 AM ▼ sentiment
Cathie Wood Calls the $1.75 Trillion SpaceX IPO a Bargain: Here's Why
Cathie Wood says $10 trillion in Starship revenue would make the $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO a deep value bargain.
starship BeInCrypto Sep 16, 7:44 AM — sentiment
Prediction: SpaceX's Starlink Doubles Again to 24 Million Subscribers Before 2027 Ends
Starlink, the satellite internet service of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), ended June with 12.0 million subscribers -- twice the count of a year earlier, and up 1.7 million in the second qu…
starlink Biztoc.com Sep 16, 3:32 PM ▲ sentiment
Trump dismisses concerns over AI dangers
The US president said calls to slow down AI development are a "sick conspiracy," claiming that they only serve China. Market leaders have warned of the dangers of the technology's …
geopolitical DW (English) Sep 14, 11:54 AM ▼ sentiment
Donald Trump dismisses concerns about dangers of AI
The president called efforts to slow the development of artificial intelligence a "sick conspiracy," claiming they only serve China. Market leaders have warned of the dangers of th…
geopolitical DW (English) Sep 14, 11:54 AM ▼ sentiment
‘Silent Cold War’: Why calls to slow AI have sparked new US–China frontier
Anthropic CEO urges restricted China access to AI tech, sparking accusations of US technological dominance strategies.
geopolitical Al Jazeera English Sep 14, 10:23 AM — sentiment
NASA discovers Colosseum-sized Moon crater from once-in-132-year impact
Scientists found a large lunar crater from a recent impact event. This massive hole, larger than the Roman Colosseum, was initially undetected. NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter …
macro The Times of India Sep 17, 12:39 AM ▼ sentiment
US official says upcoming spectrum auctions could generate more than $100 billion
WASHINGTON, Sept 16 : Federal Communications Commission Chair Brendan Carr said Wednesday that a series of upcoming wireless spectrum auctions over the next couple of years could g…
macro CNA Sep 16, 9:58 PM ▼ sentiment
ASTS Stockholder Alert: Shareholder Rights Law Firm Robbins LLP Reminds Investors of the Class Action Lawsuit Against AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
SAN DIEGO, Sept. 16, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Shareholder rights law firm Robbins LLP reminds investors that a class action was filed on behalf of persons and entities who purchased or…
macro PRNewswire Sep 16, 7:45 PM ▼ sentiment
American Airlines Sees Strong Demand, but Fuel Spike Threatens Profit Outlook
American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) CEO Robert Isom said demand remains strong across the carrier’s network, cabins and geographies, while volatile fuel cos...
macro MarketBeat Sep 16, 12:02 PM ▲ sentiment
These Robot Soldiers Are Getting Downright Terrifying
"If the US military had 100,000 robots that they could just demonstrate working, it would, by and large, end a lot of wars before they start." The post These Robot Soldiers Are Get…
macro Futurism Sep 15, 2:08 PM — sentiment
SpaceX Defies Gravity With a Nasdaq-100 Double-Weighting Boost
SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 weighting will more than double at the Sept. 18 rebalance as lockup expirations expand its float, forcing index funds to buy billions in...
macro MarketBeat Sep 15, 9:55 AM ▲ sentiment
Is SpaceX a Millionaire-Maker Stock?
With a market cap of $2 trillion, SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is one of the largest public companies in the world, but that hasn't stopped it from experiencing penny stock-like volatilit…
macro Biztoc.com Sep 15, 8:00 AM ▲ sentiment
JPMorgan's Petno sees bank fees surging while warning the cycle feels 'too good'
JPMorgan stock finished more than 1% higher on Tuesday after co-president Doug Petno delivered an upbeat third quarter revenue forecast.
other Yahoo Entertainment Sep 15, 4:53 PM ▼ sentiment
Musk hints (again) at possible SpaceX, Tesla merger
Elon Musk once again hinted at possible deepening collaboration, perhaps the possibility of a merger, between his two major companies: Tesla and SpaceX.
other Yahoo Entertainment Sep 15, 9:50 AM — sentiment
SpaceX Bags AI Hosting Deal Worth More Than $1 Billion a Month. What This Means for SPCX Stock.
The deal will commence on December 1.
other Barchart.com Sep 15, 7:20 AM ▲ sentiment
SpaceX's first Starfall customer is European mission integrator Space Cargo
WASHINGTON, Sept 15 : SpaceX's new Starfall business of returning products and other payloads from Earth's orbit has signed a mission deal with integrator Space Cargo as the unit's…
other CNA Sep 15, 1:08 AM ▼ sentiment
Elon Musk sends strong signal for SpaceX, Nvidia stocks
A major SpaceX AI milestone may arrive sooner than expected.
other TheStreet Sep 14, 5:03 PM ▲ sentiment
From Empty Stockpiles to Explosive Profits
This post From Empty Stockpiles to Explosive Profits appeared first on Daily Reckoning. Missile makers are set to feast... The post From Empty Stockpiles to Explosive Profits appea…
other Dailyreckoning.com Sep 14, 4:00 PM — sentiment
Trump blasts Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei over AI warning: ‘SICK conspiracy’
In a Truth Social post Monday morning, Trump doubled down on his dismissal of safety concerns.
other New York Post Sep 14, 12:23 PM ▼ sentiment
Trump lashes out at Dario Amodei after the Anthropic CEO called for a slowdown in AI development
"The Trump Administration has stopped AI 'people' from doing bad, or potentially bad, 'things,' like Dario (Anthropic!)" President Donald Trump wrote.
other Business Insider Sep 14, 11:53 AM — sentiment
Elon Musk: I've been 'sounding the alarm' on AI for a while
Leave it to Elon Musk to say, essentially, I've been right all along.
other Yahoo Entertainment Sep 14, 10:18 AM — sentiment
'Dario is Right': What Elon Musk and More Top Executives Are Saying About an AI Slowdown
Calls for a slowdown in AI development have sparked plenty of conversation on Wall Street.
other Barchart.com Sep 14, 9:50 AM ▼ sentiment
SPCX Tracker · Catalysts & news pulled live daily · Educational model, not financial advice
Catalyst-weighted Monte Carlo (20k paths) + runtime news/catalyst detection + self-backtesting · 2026